Will Trend IDO continue?

Trend IDO has also gone through a time that is not too long, but not too short. So how far do you think this trend has developed? Or worse, is this trend about to end? After reading this article, I think you will have your own answer.

First, you need to know what IDO is and the benefits of playing IDO through the article: What is IDO? Is playing IDO really going to win 100%?

After understanding about IDO, let’s take a look at the data:

Specific data on IDO trends of platforms

Currently, there are many IDO platforms, but most of them are new, so there is not much data in the past. In addition, other Blockchains have just implemented IDO, so there are very few projects.

So in this section, I only took the two largest representatives on Ethereum: Polkastarter and DAO Maker.

Polkastarter

According to the most recent three-month statistics, Polkastarter has an average February ATH ROI of up to 27,100% – an impressive number. However, in March witnessed a rather serious decrease, only 5,700%, which is only a quarter of the previous month.

With a volatile April due to BTC “evaporating” $18,000 (27%), ATH ROI is probably also affected more or less, so it is also quite modest with 2,200%. And May hasn’t ended yet, so I don’t have any conclusions about this month’s results, but with 4 projects just completed their fundraising, IDO buyers only have an average of “x” 11 times more than that. with the amount of capital spent (ie 1,100%).

Read more: The most detailed IDO guide on Polkastarter

Knife Maker

Similar to Polkastarter, DAO Maker had a great February, with ROI of all projects reaching more than 1,000% (over x10) and average ATH ROI up to ~10,700%, especially ALICE with x318x – a huge number terrible (data from DAO Maker).

With March, the average project profit also remained larger than x10, but the actual ROI was only ~3,000%. The worst was April with average returns only around x10.

Currently, it is mid-May, there have been a number of projects with IDO results such as Lever Network, Hord,… details you can see here.

Read more: Detailed instructions to join IDO on DAO Maker

Through the data from the two platforms, it is easy to see that profits have decreased gradually each month, but why?

Factors affecting ROI of IDO

Gas fee

Gas fee increasing day by day, along with the price of Etherum always breaking ATH has contributed to making users more cautious at each swap order. Although recently, for some reason, the gas fee has dropped quite a bit, to less than 100 gwei. But the user has not yet enjoyed the full joy, the gas fee pump suddenly again.

Usually, whitelist winners always have the mentality of wanting to “discharge” as quickly as possible, for fear of losing profits, and in the worst case scenario, the profit is sometimes even lower than the swap fee. And those who are not lucky enough to win do not dare to jump in to buy because the swap fee is too high, and the profit is risky. With this mentality, Sell demand increased sharply. (first)

Besides, the projects that raise capital are as many as mushrooms that grow after the rain, the idea of ​​​​clone is quite a lot, there is no special feature, making Buy demand almost very little. (2)

Combining (1) and (2), it can be seen that this is one of the factors that reduce the profit of IDO.

IDO hit rate

In this respect, I don’t need to explain too much. If you have ever participated in IDO directly, or walked around the groups, you will also see that the number of people showing off winning the slot is small, but the number of people crying because of it is a lot.

But for this reason, projects started to create more ways for people to get Whitelist tickets. Specifically, Steakbank gave users liquidity to have more opportunities to receive slots to buy IDO, or Lever offered an auction form, running Social Campaign to facilitate the purchase of project tokens.

But anyway, the hit rate is too low is also a reason for players to feel discouraged. And the more people who are not interested in the project, the more likely I don’t think to jump in to buy after the token goes on the market.

There is a theory that, the Whitelist has been structured by the project, so there is almost no chance of winning for ordinary users, what do you think about this thought?

bots

For players with a tech background, it’s not difficult for them to write bots to help them sell their tokens quickly. But projects often pump very strongly the project has an All time high profit in the first moments, so these bots are the ones who discharge at the top.

For ordinary users, it takes time for them to perform Approve and Swap operations and wait for the completion of these operations, so profits are also reduced due to inadequate sales. But when the amount of money collected is not worth the effort to participate as well as the gas fee problem I mentioned above, it will lead to players gradually decreasing, leading to the same problem with a low win rate.

In the last part, I will make some predictions about how IDO will develop in the near future.

Predicting the future of the IDO trend

Trend IDO on non-Ethereum platforms develops

With new ecosystems like Cardano, Solana,…, projects will still use IDO as a launch pad. And in the beginning, based on the Hype of these Blockchains, the ATH ROI will be quite high. Even if unfortunately buying a “bomb”, users can freely sell and earn a profit, although not high, but still reasonable with cheap transaction fees. Therefore, I predict that users will no longer be interested in IDO on Ethereum.

For example, IDO the MEDIA project on Raydium, users can buy a very small amount (allocation of each wallet is only $0.5-1, ie 0.7-1 MEDIA). With the current price of about x10 compared to the purchase price, users only earn about $70-150. But due to the extremely low transaction fees from the Solana platform, it can be said that they enjoy all of this profit.

What do you think if this profit is on Ethereum with transaction fees up to several hundred dollars?

Restructure the way to play trend IDO

Perhaps many projects have seen the disadvantages of Whitelist in terms of transparency, as well as no longer attracting users, so they have switched to an equally divided method. EVERYBODY.

Not far away, PancakeSwap with IFO, or most recently Raydium’s IDO on Solana is perhaps one of the pioneering projects in this direction. Everyone participating in the Pool is guaranteed to win tokens, but in return, the number of tokens purchased is very small. So this mode I see has two disadvantages:

• Only for platforms with low transaction fees.
• The project must Pump high for the proceeds to be worth playing.

But anyway, I think that dividing equally among all players based on the amount of capital invested is more or less sympathetic than filling in the Whitelist.

Cross-chain IDO

This possibility I think is very unlikely to happen, but it is not impossible. If you notice, Polkastarter has the “blood” of Polka-, but the above fundraising projects all work on Ethereum??

Therefore, if the IDO Platform projects on Ethereum do not solve the above problems, there is a high possibility that there will be fundraising platform projects that also accept projects that are not on their supporting Blockchain.

Along with the Multi-chain trend of projects starting to show up and the bridges between chains also starting to be focused, Cross-chain IDO is also an interesting idea that I think is still possible.

summary

“And maybe Darwin knew the seas would be drier
But I believe he doesn’t know we’re evolving to be lonely.”

Black Vow

IDO like any other creature, also follows “Darwin’s Theory of Evolution”, this trend will still exist for a while but will improve a lot of things to suit the community as well as the market.

Do you guys have the same thoughts about IDO as I do? If you have a different perspective, you can comment below.